| Year |
#Sales |
Avg SF |
Avg $/SF |
Avg Lot Size |
Avg Price |
| 10 Yr Avg |
42 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
| 2006 |
47 |
2091 |
$160 |
0.76 |
$334,560 |
| 2007 |
30 |
2358 |
$174 |
0.77 |
$410,292 |
| 2008 |
16 |
2434 |
$173 |
1.12 |
$421,081 |
| 2009 |
16 |
2,095 |
$145 |
0.97 |
$303,000* |
| 2010 |
16 |
1,995 |
$127 |
0.84 |
$253,500* |
| 2011 |
7 |
2,475 |
$116 |
0.97 |
$286,143* |
*Includes Foreclosure or "REO" sales.
Jump To Lot Closings
Breakdown
| Year |
#Sales |
Avg SF |
Avg $/SF |
Avg Lot Size |
Avg Price |
| 2010 (No REO's) |
10 |
1,975 |
$159 |
0.94 |
$314,150 |
| 2010(REO's Only) |
5 |
2,024 |
$68 |
0.67 |
$137,724 |
| 2011(No REO's) |
5 |
2,509 |
$141 |
0.97 |
$353,400 |
| 2011(REO's only) |
2 |
2,390 |
$49 |
1.00 |
$117,000 |
Homes Closed at Wolf Laurel: 2008-2011, (PDF):
Chart: House by house, since 01/01/08 with features, $/SF,
lot size,
etc. Through: 06/30/11.
Long Term Trends
1) Demand for Homes: Since 01/01/2008
demand is flat at 16 homes/year.
This has occurred despite declines in average selling prices of
around 40%.
Since Oct,
2009, only 5 homes, (1 in 8 sales), have closed above $275,000.
This has changed a bit of late for non foreclosures. Dollars
per SF in this category has declined 11% over last year, while
average selling prices have risen. This could be a statistical
anomaly from so few sales, or it perhaps indicates more demand in
higher price ranges. The result however is still a net loss to
sellers in this segment of the market.
2) Supply: Supply continues at lofty levels.
At
current rates of demand there are around 7.3 years worth of homes for
sale. 33% of all homes for sale in Madison County are inside
the gate at Wolf Laurel.
3) The Future: The weight of large
inventories and aggressively low buyers will push 2011 numbers down
at the $/SF level, if not overall average selling prices.
For some time we have been predicting a new record of around 125
homes eventually listed for sale. This may not occur as a good
number of sellers have opted to remained off the MLS thus far.
Half of Wolf Laurel homes for sale are listed at
less than $300K. As a result of all of these factors, unit sales
will exceed those for the previous year for the first time since
2006, but with lower dollar indexes.
This will however bring about only a small reduction
in inventory by 12/31/11. Among the causes for this are
numerous sellers waiting in the wings for better days.
We believe it will be 2013
before inventory begins to legitimately decline below 100 homes for
sale.
Methodology: Villas, Mountainside, and The Lodge were
included in total closings, but excluded from calculations for
average sq ft, average lot size, and $/SF.
Back To Top
Jump To Lot Closings
Closings: Villas, Town Homes and Condos: Brief Summary, 2006 to the
present.
White
Paper: WL Homes Closed Over $500K,
(PDF): From 2006 to present, summarizing the nature and traits of homes
that have closed over $500,000; location, lot size, $/Sq Ft, etc. Last Update:
06/30/11.
Complete Wolf Laurel Listings:
Browse MLS displays of all homes and lots currently listed.
Contact us for more info.
Browse
All County Homes and Land Listings 2 -50 Acres
Homes Listed: 06/30/11
| List Prices |
# Homes Listed |
| Less Than $250K |
37 |
| $250K - $400K |
34 |
| $400K - $550K |
14 |
| Greater Than $550K |
19 |
WL Supply: 20% of all homes on the mountain
are actively listed for sale. This represents 7.3 years of
supply, and comprises 1/3 of all homes for sale in the county. Private
sellers face continued difficulties in trying to stand out from the
pack. Price will remain the key factor for those who wish to
sell, or even get a look. Our feeling is that 3/4 of homes
listed for sale did not get a single phone call in 2010.
List Prices: The pattern for prices is to see
a round of decreases in early spring, again during Aug-Sept, and
then again in later Fall. Decreases of $50K were not uncommon
in 2010. Sellers in 2011have not significantly departed from this
tone.
Complete Wolf Laurel Listings:
MLS displays of all homes and lots currently listed. Contact
us for detailed info. Updated weekly.
Back To Top
WL: Lots Closed Through 06/30/11
| Item |
10 Yr Avg |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
| Lots Sold |
50 |
153 |
40 |
8 |
6 |
5 |
1 |
| Avg. Size |
- |
- |
- |
0.71 |
0.78 |
1.16 |
0.5 |
| Avg. $/Acre |
- |
- |
- |
$57,950 |
$50,450 |
$53,330 |
$9,500 |
Demand: Perhaps half of lot sales in the past 3.5
years have been by current owners buying adjacent parcels.
This is in stark contrast to a market characterized by new buyers.
Demand for lots remains all but absent.
Supply: There are currently 100 lots
for sale. This equates to approx 16.7
years worth of supply.
The chart shows a speculative land bubble at Wolf
Laurel in 2006. By our reckoning there are more than100 lots from
this time period that are not officially listed for sale, but
instead sit on the sidelines as shadow
inventory. At present rates of demand, this added inventory
would work out to almost 40 years worth of supply.
Future: Needless to say, the market for lots
will suffer from oversupply for a number of years.
Complete Wolf Laurel Listings:
MLS displays of all homes and lots currently listed.
Contact us for detailed info. Updated weekly.
Lots Closed at Wolf Laurel, (PDF):
Piece by piece from 01/01/08 with salient features. Through:
06/30/11.
Old Wolf Laurel Charts Here.
Back To Top
Data Source: Regional MLS, deemed reliable, not guaranteed.
Copyright, Black Bear Realty, Inc, all rights
reserved. Reproduction, redistribution in any form, even for non
commercial purposes, must be done with permission and attribution.
Contact:
Info@BlackBearRE.com
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