WL: Homes Sold: Thru 05/31/10
| Item |
10 Yr Avg |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 YTD |
| Homes Sold |
42 |
47 |
30 |
16 |
16 |
3 |
| Avg. Sq Ft |
- |
2,091 |
2,358 |
2,434 |
2,095 |
1,865 |
| Avg. $/Sq Ft |
- |
$160 |
$174 |
$173 |
$145 |
$130 |
| Avg. Lot Size |
- |
0.76 |
0.77 |
1.12 |
0.97 |
0.57 |
| Avg. Price |
- |
$334,560 |
$410,292 |
$421,082 |
$303,000 |
$237,500 |
17 Month Trends
1) The following indexes have
fallen at 2-3 times national rates. A) Average SF is
minus 14%, B) $/SF is down by 16% and, C) Average sale
price by 28%. Since April 1, the WL market is in an
accelerated state of price decline. Unit sales will rise in
2010, but dollar indexes will fall from 2009 levels.
2) Demand: With the impact of the epic
winter, we are seeing pent up demand. The demand however is at the low end as evidenced by the average selling
price, with a focus on a growing inventory of bank owned homes.
3) Supply: Pent up supply has arrived
with a record number of active listings. We have been advising
since Q4 2009 that 100 homes for sale was probable. We
have now touched that plateau. 110 active listings is in
sight, 4 times what was once considered normal, and represents
approx 1 of every 5 homes on the mountain.
4) Future: There are 6 homes pending as this
is being written from $79K to $240K, with one over $450K, thus
further erosion of the average selling price is a forgone
conclusion. Bearing in mind that just 1 or 2 high end sales
can alter averages, it is nevertheless probable that by the end of
June, average selling price will be under $200K, and less than
$110/SF, perhaps less than $100/SF. Unit sales will however exceed the levels of 2009,
the law of supply and demand in action.
Homes Closed at Wolf Laurel: 2008-2010, (PDF): House by house, since 01/01/08 with features, $/Sq Ft,
lot size,
etc. Through: 05/31/10.
WL Homes Closed Over $500K,
(PDF): Organizing this market segment from 2006 to present
according to traits of homes
that have closed, location, lot size, $/Sq Ft, etc. Last Update:
05/31/10.
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Jump To Lot Closings
Nature of Active Home Listings
WL Home Supply: 4 times what was once
considered normal. As noted above, approx 1 in 5 homes are
actively listed for sale. Bank owned homes are now numerous
enough to put pressure on the resort as a whole, and not
surprisingly have been the main focus of buyers' attention. To
illustrate, we have written numerous offers in the past 6 months,
none over $200K. The grapevine tells us that this is the case
across the whole mountain.
Median Price: Approximately half of WL
residential listings are priced at $340K or less, (the median).
$/Sq Ft: The range of active listings is
approximately from $89/SF - $396/SF, broken out below. In the
past 120 days, the number of homes priced at $150/SF and less has
more than doubled, homes over $200/SF is another growing category.
| List Price - $/Sq Ft |
# Homes Listed |
| Less Than $150/Sq Ft |
32 |
| $151 - $175/Sq Ft |
14 |
| $176 - $200/Sq Ft |
14 |
| Greater Than $200/Sq Ft |
25 |
Wolf Laurel Best Buys:
MLS displays and full photos of all homes at WL listed at $150/Sq Ft
or less. As Of 06/19/10.
Complete Wolf Laurel Listings: All homes currently listed with
basic data and single photo displays. Contact us for detailed
info. As of: 06/24/10.
Methodology: Villas, Mountainside, and The Lodge were
included in total closings, but excluded from calculations for
average sq ft, average lot size, and $/SF.
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WL: Lots Closed Through 05/31/10
| Item |
10 Yr Avg |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 YTD |
| Lots Sold |
50 |
153 |
40 |
8 |
6 |
1* |
| Avg. Size |
- |
- |
- |
0.71 |
0.78 |
3.05 |
| Avg. $/Acre |
- |
- |
- |
$57,950 |
$50,450 |
$49,180 |
*Note: This lot closing was actually 4
adjoining lots with a single buyer.
Demand: The chart is self explanatory.
Supply: As this is being written, there are
72 lots for sale, this is up 18% in the past 30 days. In 08/09
there were more than 100 lot listings. Our sense is that we
will not see record levels of lots for sale on the MLS.
However, there is not a real estate firm or agent in the area that
does not have knowledge of numerous unlisted parcels for sale, so
record supply probably does exist in an unofficial manner.
WL Lots Currently For Sale: Data and single photo displays of
all lots for sale: As Of: 06/24/10.
Lots Closed at Wolf Laurel, (PDF):
Piece by piece from 01/01/08 with salient features. Through:
05/31/10.
Old Wolf Laurel Charts Here.
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Data Source: Regional MLS, deemed reliable, not guaranteed.
Copyright, Black Bear Realty, Inc, all rights
reserved. Reproduction, redistribution in any form, even for non
commercial purposes, must be done with permission and attribution.
Contact:
Info@BlackBearRE.com
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