WL: Homes Sold: Thru 06/30/10
| Item |
10 Yr Avg |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 YTD |
| Homes Sold |
42 |
47 |
30 |
16 |
16 |
6 |
| Avg. Sq Ft |
- |
2,091 |
2,358 |
2,434 |
2,095 |
2,049 |
| Avg. $/Sq Ft |
- |
$160 |
$174 |
$173 |
$145 |
$122 |
| Avg. Lot Size |
- |
0.76 |
0.77 |
1.12 |
0.97 |
0.59 |
| Avg. Price |
- |
$334,560 |
$410,292 |
$421,082 |
$303,000 |
$249,480 |
Long Term Trends
1) Overview: In micro markets, some indexes
such as average selling price and home size can vary from month to month
depending on individual homes that closed. All indexes at the
end of June however are fairly consistent with the bearish trends of
the past 18 months. In the long run, $/SF will most accurately
portray the market and avoid these month to month fluctuations.
2) Demand: The story to date is a
dismal 2010 through the end of March. Some demand is showing
itself but buyers are centered with low offers, at the low end. (See
item #4 below.)
3) Supply: Pent up supply has arrived. We have been advising
since Q4 2009 that 100 homes for sale was possible. We
have now left that number far behind. As this is being
written, there are 117 active residential listings. This is 4
times what was once considered normal. At current rates of
demand, supply is measured at up to 10 years worth of homes. Even
with a sudden, robust increase in demand, the pressure of this inventory on prices will take years to
alleviate.
4) Future: There are 4 homes pending as this
is being written, (July 3). If all of these homes closed tomorrow,
average sales price for the resort would be under $200,000, and
average $/SF would be flirting with the $100 mark. Unit sales
for 2010 have a chance to exceed the previous year for the first
time since 2006. This is the law of supply and demand in
action.
Methodology: Villas, Mountainside, and The Lodge were
included in total closings, but excluded from calculations for
average sq ft, average lot size, and $/SF.
Closings: Villas, Town Homes and Condos: Brief Summary to the
present.
Homes Closed at Wolf Laurel: 2008-2010, (PDF): House by house, since 01/01/08 with features, $/Sq Ft,
lot size,
etc. Through: 06/30/10.
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Jump To Lot Closings
Nature of Active Home Listings
WL Home Supply: 4 times what was once
considered normal, with 20% of all homes on the mountain actively
listed for sale. This is an inventory that can be measured at
10 years of homes given current demand.
List Prices: During 2010, the lower end of
active listings has ballooned with aggressive sellers cutting
prices. Homes above $500K has inflated with old sellers
re-listing for the summer, and many new listings.
| List Prices |
# Homes Listed |
| Less Than $250K |
35 |
| $250K - $350K |
18 |
| $350K - $500K |
27 |
| Greater Than $500K |
37 |
White
Paper: WL Homes Closed Over $500K,
(PDF): Organizing this market segment from 2006 to present
according to traits of homes
that have closed, location, lot size, $/Sq Ft, etc. Last Update:
06/30/10.
Wolf Laurel Homes $350K & Less:
Full MLS photo displays, all homes
under $350,000. As of 07/23/10.
Complete Wolf Laurel Listings: All homes currently listed with
abbreviated photo displays. Contact us for detailed info.
As of 07/23/10.
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WL: Lots Closed Through 06/30/10
| Item |
10 Yr Avg |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 YTD |
| Lots Sold |
50 |
153 |
40 |
8 |
6 |
1* |
| Avg. Size |
- |
- |
- |
0.71 |
0.78 |
3.05 |
| Avg. $/Acre |
- |
- |
- |
$57,950 |
$50,450 |
$49,180 |
*Note: This lot closing was actually 4
adjoining lots with a single buyer.
Demand: The chart is self explanatory.
Supply: As this is being written, there are
74 lots for sale, this is up 20% in the past 60 days. In 08/09
there were more than 100 lot listings. Our sense remains that
as many as 50 lots are currently with sellers in waiting and will
not be listed, thus we will not see record levels of supply on the
MLS.
As the chart above shows for 2006 Wolf Laurel had
its own speculative bubble, and we would expect sales in this
category to remain down for some number of years yet under pressure
from this shadow inventory.
WL Lots Currently For Sale: Data and single photo displays of
all lots for sale, alphabetical by street: As Of: 07/23/10.
Lots Closed at Wolf Laurel, (PDF):
Piece by piece from 01/01/08 with salient features. Through:
06/30/10.
Old Wolf Laurel Charts Here.
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Data Source: Regional MLS, deemed reliable, not guaranteed.
Copyright, Black Bear Realty, Inc, all rights
reserved. Reproduction, redistribution in any form, even for non
commercial purposes, must be done with permission and attribution.
Contact:
Info@BlackBearRE.com
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