| Year |
#Sales |
Avg Acres |
Avg SF |
Avg $/SF |
Avg Price |
| Avg '99-'08 |
42 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
| 2006 |
47 |
0.76 |
2091 |
$160 |
$334,560 |
| 2007 |
30 |
0.77 |
2358 |
$174 |
$410,292 |
| 2008 |
16 |
1.12 |
2434 |
$173 |
$421,081 |
| 2009 |
16 |
0.97 |
2,095 |
$145 |
$303,000* |
| 2010 |
16 |
0.84 |
1,995 |
$127 |
$253,500* |
| 2011 |
21 |
0.92 |
2,291 |
$114 |
$261,428* |
*Includes REOs, (Foreclosures)
Jump To Lot Closings
Breakdown: Foreclosures vs. Private Sellers
| Year |
#Sales |
Avg Lot Size |
Avg SF |
Avg $/SF |
Avg Price |
| 2010 (No
REO's) |
11 |
0.94 |
1,975 |
$159 |
$314,150 |
| 2011 (No
REO's) |
17 |
1.03 |
2,394 |
$119 |
$285,646 |
| 2010(REO's Only) |
5 |
0.67 |
2,024 |
$68 |
$137,724 |
| 2011(REO's only) |
4 |
0.84 |
2,247 |
$71 |
$158,499 |
Long Term Trends
1) Demand for Homes: Average
dollar prices have fallen by 38% since 2008. In the
past 12 months alone, this has been driven by private
sellers forced to lower their prices by more than 25% to
an average of $119/SF for the year. The result is that
after 3 years of flat demand, (2008-2010), we have
finally seen an increase in unit sales vs. the prior
year. This is the first time this has occurred since
2006.
2) Prices - $/SF: As
the numbers show, homes selling around $140-$150/SF have
been virtually absent. Under present conditions, it is
only newer homes, close to or on pavement, essentially
furnished, with big views and quality appointments that
have any hope of reaching this number. Even then, one
must be lucky enough to find the right buyer.
3) Supply: Wolf Laurel supply on
the MLS remains large and has hovered around 5-6 years
worth of inventory for 4 years now. 20% of all homes on
the mountain are actively listed for sale. This
represents almost 1/3 of all homes for sale in the
county. The most notable item however, is the number of
sellers still waiting to list their homes for sale. The
literature calls this phenomenon "shadow inventory".
4) List Prices: The
pattern for prices is to see a round of decreases in
early spring, again during Aug-Sept, and then again in
late Fall. Decreases of $50K or more are not uncommon
over the past two years.
5) For 2012: The
weight of large inventories and stingy buyers will keep
pressure on prices for the foreseeable future. Half of
Wolf Laurel homes for sale are listed at less than
$300K, and 70% are less than $400K, this will only
increase. All of this will bring about only a small
reduction in inventory by the end of 2012.
Barring any unforeseen economic
catastrophes, we expect to see a 50% increase in demand
for 2012 with more than 30 homes sold. Nevertheless, it
will be late 2013 before inventory begins to
legitimately decline below 90-100 homes for sale because
of thr aforementioned shadow inventory. Buyers in any
price range have 10, 15, even 20 homes to choose from.
This will not change any time soon and remains a burden
for sellers to bear.
Methodology: Villas,
Mountainside, and The Lodge were included in total
closings, but excluded from calculations for average sq
ft, average lot size, and $/SF.
Back To Top
Homes Sold at Wolf Laurel: 2008-2011, (PDF): Chart:
House by house, since 01/01/08 with features, $/SF, lot
size, etc. Through:
12/31/11.
Complete Wolf Laurel Listings: Browse MLS displays
of all homes and lots currently listed. Contact us for
more info.
Closings: Villas, Town Homes and Condos: Brief
Summary, 2006 to the present.
White Paper: WL Homes Sold Over $500K, (PDF): Summarizing
the nature and traits of homes that have closed over
$500,000; location, lot size, $/Sq Ft, etc, since 2006.
Browse All County Homes and Land By Town and Price Range
Complete Wolf Laurel Listings: MLS displays of all
homes and lots currently listed. Contact us for
detailed info. Updated
weekly.
Back To Top
WL: Lots Closed Through
12/31/11
| Item |
10 Yr Avg |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
| Lots Sold |
50 |
153 |
40 |
8 |
6 |
5 |
6 |
| Avg. Size |
- |
- |
- |
0.71 |
0.78 |
1.16 |
0.93 |
| Avg. $/Acre |
- |
- |
- |
$57,950 |
$50,450 |
$53,330 |
$21,416 |
Demand: It
is accurate to say that demand for lots remains all but
absent. Half of lot sales in the past 4 years have been
by current owners buying parcels adjacent to
themselves. This is in contrast to a market
characterized by new buyers. In December of 2012, we
saw 3 REO lot sales. This is 50% of all lot sales this
year, and a new phenomenon for our micro market.
Supply: There
are essentially 100 lots for sale. This equates to
approx 17 years worth of supply at current rates of
demand.
Of Note: The chart shows a
speculative land bubble at Wolf Laurel in 2006. By our
reckoning there are more than100 lots from this time
period that are not officially listed for sale, but
instead sit on the sidelines as shadow inventory. At
present rates of demand, this added inventory would work
out to almost 35 years worth of supply.
Future: Needless to say, the
market for lots will suffer from oversupply for years to
come.
Complete Wolf Laurel Listings: MLS displays of all
homes and lots currently listed. Contact us for
detailed info. Updated
weekly.
Lots Closed at Wolf Laurel, (PDF): Piece by
piece from 01/01/08 to the present, with salient
features.
Old Wolf Laurel Charts Here.
Back To Top
Data Source: Regional MLS, deemed
reliable, not guaranteed.
Copyright, Black Bear Realty, Inc,
all rights reserved. Reproduction, redistribution in
any form, even for non commercial purposes, must be done
with permission and attribution.
Contact: Info@BlackBearRE.com
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