Commentary
Demand: The year 2010 through March was off to a poor
start. Most observers attributed this to historic bad winter
weather. The past 60 days have shown considerable improvement
with respect to home sales. Unit home sales are a good
bet to exceed 2009, however dollar volume, average selling prices,
and average $/SF will fall, possibly by 20%, and spurred by certain
areas more than others.
In the case of land sales, 2010 is on track
to come in at lower levels for both unit sales and all dollar
indexes. At the moment unit sales project out for another 50%
drop from 2010. Our sense is that land volume will indeed
fall, but not by nearly this much. We are looking for year end
to come in more on the order of 10% - 15% less than 2009 for unit
sales. Dollar indexes are soft, but to a lesser degree.
Supply: Inventories for both homes and land
are up by 20% in the past 2 months. It is our feeling that 10%
additional supply is waiting in the wings which will keep pressure
on prices.
Source: Regional MLS, deemed reliable, not
guaranteed.
Big Picture Chart Archive:
Previous Charts Located Here.
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